A ratio and formula for transmission dynamics of COVID-19

Abstract

A basic reproductive number Ro is an important in dynamics of a newly emerged and rapidly growing infectious disease outbreak, such as COVID-19. However, the current researches indicated that Ro for COVID-19 is quite affected by many other factors or parameters.

To find the alternative index for the reality of spread of the COVID-19, a study based on the population of 2,067.14 millions from seven countries, USA, UK, Brazil, India, South Africa, Canada and Sweden, was conducted and the weekly new case ratio as index for mathematical method or anticipatable formula for application was introduced. In addition, it could be used for evaluating Ro value and setting a methodological formula or index for other contagious disease in the future.  

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